French President Emmanuel Macron is in a difficult political situation, imposed on him by the results of legislative elections that have deprived him of the absolute majority that would allow him to form a government with comfortable parliamentary preparation.
Faced with this situation, Macron will face a series of scenarios through which he will attempt to achieve a new government synthesis. What scenarios are generally available to the French president?
Alliance with the Republicans
The coalition can “together”! With 245 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly, the presidential candidate must strike a parliamentary agreement with the opposition, especially with the right-wing Republican Party, which won 61 seats, which gives him the right to overcome the threshold of 289 deputies needed to obtain an absolute majority to pass the texts of laws. “This is a German-style decision,” constitutional expert Ann-Charlene Besina told RMC radio, stressing that the decision is based on “providing guarantees to the other side.”
Situational alliances
This decision is based on administrative management without a fixed and stable majority and the desire to achieve it whenever a new bill is proposed. “With regard to pension reform, Emmanuel Macron can seek support from the ‘republicans’ who support this reform,” Dominique Rousseau, professor of constitutional law at the Panthéon-Sorbonne University, told AFP. Rousseau warned that the decision was a “double-edged sword”, noting that MPs could move a vote of no confidence after using the decision. If the coalition of the left, the National Assembly and the Republicans vote “together” in favor of a vote of no confidence, the government will fall.”
double-edged sword
The dissolution of the National Assembly is also a double-edged sword. Rousseau said that Macron can resort to this solution whenever he wants.
The constitutional expert warned: “It’s up to the president, but once he dissolves the National Assembly, he won’t be able to dissolve it again for a whole year.” “Constitutionally, he can dissolve the assembly in the coming days, but the political game is very dangerous,” he stressed.
The least likely scenario, but it is possible: the resignation of Macron, who was re-elected on April 24 for a second five-year term, and the appointment of new presidential elections.
“It will be a gamble,” Rousseau warned, especially since the question would be whether the president could run again.
