International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut global growth Forecasting again on Tuesday, warning The downside risks from high inflation and the Ukraine war were realized and could pay off world economy On the edge of the abyss of slack if left unchecked.
worldwide real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will slow to 3.2% in 2022 from forecast of 3.6% exported in April, the International Monetary Fund said in a update of its global economic prospects. He. She added who – which world GDP has already shrunk in The second quarter due to downturns in China and Russia.
Reduce the fund in 2023 growth It is expected to reach 2.9% of the April estimate of 3.6% citing impact of cash tightening policy.
Globalism growth rebound in 2021 to 6.1% after the COVID-19 pandemic is crushed global Produce in 2020 with 3.1% shrinkage.
“The outlook has been significantly darker since April world mayo soon oscillate on The edge of a global Recession, just two years after last One IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gorinchas said in a permit.
Russian gas ban
Fund told him latest Forecasts were “extraordinarily uncertain” and at risk of regression from the Russian war in Rising energy and food prices in Ukraine higher. This would exacerbate inflation and take hold for a longer term inflationary expectations which would lead to more monetary policy tighten.
Under a “reasonable” alternative scenario that includes a complete Cuts-off of Russian gas supplies to Europe via year-End and another 30% drop in The International Monetary Fund said that Russian oil exports global growth will slow to 2.6% in 2022 and 2% in 2023, with growth practically zero in Europe and the United States next year.
worldwide growth He fell below 2% only five times Since 1970, the IMF said, including the COVID-19 2020 recession.
The International Monetary Fund said it now expects inflation in 2022 rate in advanced economies to reach 6.6%, up from 5.7% in April forecast, adding that she will remain high for Longer than previously expected. inflation in Emerging and developing markets countries It is now expected to reach 9.5%. in 2022, up from 8.7% in April.
‘inflation in current The levels represent a clear risk for current And the future Macroeconomic stability and achievement back to the center bank Objectives should To be the highest priority for policy makers,” Gorinchas said.
monetary policy pulling will “bite” next yearslowing down growth and pressure arising market countries Delaying this process “will only exacerbate the difficulties,” he said, adding that central banks “should Stay on track until inflation is tamed.”
The United States and China downgrade
For the United States, the International Monetary Fund confirmed its forecast on July 12 of 2.3% growth in 2022 and anemia 1% for 2023, which you previously cut twice Since April on slowing down demand.
The fund significantly reduced China’s GDP for 2022 growth Expected to 3.3% from 4.4% in April, citing COVID-19 outbreaks and large-scale lockdowns in Big cities that reduced production and exacerbated global Supply chain disruptions.
International Monetary Fund also He said the crisis worsened in China property The sector was running down sales and investment in real Property. Additional Finance said support From Beijing can improve growth Expectations, but a steady slowdown in China is driven by a large-scale virus outbreak and lockdowns will have strong repercussions.
The International Monetary Fund downgraded the eurozone growth prospects for 2022 to 2.6% from 2.8% in April, reflecting the inflationary repercussions of the war in Ukraine. But expectations were cut off more severely for some countries with more Exposure to war, including Germany, which saw 2022 growth forecast cut to 1.2% from 2.1% in April.
Meanwhile, Italy has experienced an upgrade in in 2022 growth The look because of improved horizons for Tourism and industrial activity. But the International Monetary Fund said last The week Italy could suffer a deep recession under the Russian gas embargo.
Russia economy It is expected to shrink by 6%. in 2022 due to western tightening financial and energy penalties, and decline 3.5% other in 2023, the IMF said. It was estimated that Ukraine economy It will shrink by about 45% due to the war, but estimates come with Extreme uncertainty.
