Three analysts and a pro-reform official told Reuters that by tightening restrictions on women’s rights, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is bolstering his reputation as a hardliner and possibly the likelihood that Iran’s next supreme leader will succeed Ali Khamenei, even if that happens. soon. the cost of provoking mass protests and rumors. Differences between many Iranians and the ruling elite.
A year after Raisi’s election, marking the end of an era that many Iranians saw as more pragmatic and tolerant, his government’s strict enforcement of the hijab in the weeks leading up to Mahsa Amini’s death in custody on September 16 led to a full recovery of hardliners’ influence.
And now, as tens of thousands of protesters call for the fall of the Islamic Republic in response to Amini’s death, the hardliners are consolidating their power, endorsing the widespread use of force against the protests, even if political matters are in the hands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Analysts and sources close to Iran’s decision-making say the 83-year-old Khamenei is determined to support the pillars of the Islamic Republic, which he led since the death of its founder Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989.
Ordinary Iranians, foreign pundits and clerics see Raisi as a rival candidate to succeed Khamenei, although he has not expressed such ambitions. The Supreme Leader has not accepted a successor and there are others in the arena, most notably Mojtaba, son of Khamenei.
“Raisi really believes in the Supreme Leader’s revolutionary priority list. He is a hardliner who believes in a stricter application of social and political restrictions,” one of the reformers said, speaking on condition of anonymity for political reasons.
“I am not aware of his personal ambitions to become the next Supreme Leader, but whether he succeeds him or not, let me emphasize that my President himself is an anti-Western cleric who does not believe in a freer society,” he said. .
Reuters was unable to contact officials at my headquarters and Khamenei for comment.
Raisi, who is under the patronage of Khamenei, was elected president in June 2021 in a race to bring all branches of the state under the control of hardliners after years of more pragmatic rule by former President Hassan Rouhani.
Raisi is trusted by the Revolutionary Guards, an uncompromising military force that the state has used to quell political unrest for decades, and which Iranians see as an influential factor in choosing Khamenei’s successor.
After being nominated by Khamenei to head the judiciary, a prominent position in 2019, Raisi was sanctioned by the United States a few months later for a role he is believed to have played in the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Iran has never acknowledged the killings. When asked about the killing of political prisoners at a press conference in June 2021, Raisi replied that the judge or prosecutor who defended the safety of people deserves praise.
hijab and chastity
Raisi’s July order that authorities must enforce Iran’s “veiling and chastity law” led to further restrictions, such as banning women from entering some banks, government offices and some forms of public transportation.
On September 13, Tehran’s vice police arrested Amini, an Iranian Kurd, for “inappropriate clothing.” Three days later, Amini died in a hospital in the capital, falling into a coma. Referring to the day Amini collapsed in custody, the coroner said that she briefly regained consciousness, but “cardiopulmonary resuscitation was not effective in the first critical minute, resulting in brain damage.”
The family denied that Mahsa, 22, had any heart problems.
Women took off their headscarves and set them on fire during the protests, one of the boldest popular uprisings since the 1979 revolution and a symbolic blow to the Islamic Republic, which sought to impose a conservative dress code on women in public places.
“It’s true that the caliphate has always been in the background of Iranian politics, but I think the heavy emphasis on the veil that began in earnest this summer is a reflection of the unifying forces of the hardliners,” said Henry Roma of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, an think tank center.
The strict enforcement of the hijab during the Raisi era marks the end not only of the Rouhani era, but also of the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was known for being tough on many issues but resisted strict enforcement of the dress code. .
“Khamenei is getting ready. He wants to leave a legacy, and his legacy should support the Islamic Republic, which translates into strengthening its internal structure,” said Cornelius Adeber of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The protests have led some officials to raise questions about the mandatory hijab policy. Interestingly, however, Ali Larijani, Khamenei’s adviser, questioned whether the police should use the veil at all. But the hardliners remain in place.
Interior Minister Ahmed Vahidi, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, accused the protesters of demonstrating “ugly scenes” in the name of women’s rights, saying the protesters see “freedom in the nakedness and obscenity of women.”
Kisra Arabi of the Iran Program Initiative at the Tony Blair Institute said the Revolutionary Guards are expected to play a big role in choosing a successor because the next supreme leader will rely more on the support of the Revolutionary Guards in the face of anti-terrorism efforts. government opposition.
“My boss is out of our face”
According to human rights groups, the Revolutionary Guard is likely to play an important role if Iran decides to comprehensively quell the unrest, which has already killed more than 200 people.
But three analysts and one official told Reuters in September that the succession issue has complicated the leadership’s speculation about the extent of the crackdown, as the start of the unrest coincided with rumors of Khamenei’s poor health.
The ruling establishment – a system that combines religious power with an elected president and parliament – has been preoccupied with the maneuvering of succession of power, even when it balances security policy.
Analysts and an official said in September that some well-informed sources fear that the use of more force will expose divisions within its ranks and provoke new unrest that may not be acceptable in such a difficult time.
Protesters expressed their anger at Raisi himself during his visit to a university in Tehran this month (October), when female students chanted “My president is not in our faces” and “Mullahs are not in our faces.”
Echoing Khamenei’s statements, Raisi repeatedly blamed the West for the turmoil, accused US President Joe Biden of sowing “chaos, terror and destruction” and cited Khomeini’s description of the United States as the “Great Satan”.
Under Raisi, months of indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Vienna stalled over salvaging the 2015 nuclear deal. Both sides say Tehran and Washington must make political decisions to resolve the remaining issues.
Sanctions on Iranian oil continue to put pressure on the Iranian economy, causing the currency to drop to record levels.
“Raisi takes such an extreme stance on women’s rights because he knows what Khamenei wants,” said Meir Javidanfar, a lecturer on Iran at Richman University in Israel.
He added that “following Khamenei’s approach in his position on the issue of women, he will support him in the race for Khamenei’s successor.”
