Germany economy unexpectedly shrunk in the fourth quartercomparison with the previous three-month period, official The numbers showed on Monday.
The data was worse than expected performance and a sign That the largest in Europe economy He may be entering a much-anticipated recession, though it is likely to be less deep one than he feared at first.
GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter on quarter in adjusted termssaid the Federal Statistical Office. Reuters poll of Analysts expected economy will stagnate.
the office He said that the gross domestic product has shrunk for the first time ago first quarter of 2021 largely because of a decline in Consumer spending, which is supported economy in the first nine months of 2022.
the drop follows a growth of 0.5% in Third quarter and 0.1% in the second quarter.
statistics office He said in Mid-January, before it was complete December economic data economy It seems stagnant in the fourth quarter. Monday announcement prompt it to be reviewed last year’s full-year growth the shape down to 1.8% from 1.9% initially reported.
Recession – generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction – became more Most likely, as many experts predict economy will also Shrink in the first quarter of 2023.
The winter months are turning out Thomas Getzel, chief economist at VP Bank, said:
“cruel crash of German economy remains Absent, but a slight stagnation remains on the cards. “
German Economics Minister Robert Habeck said last week in The annual government financial Report that the economic crisis triggered by the Russians invasion of But Ukraine was under control. However high energy prices and benefits rate mean rises government remains caution.
the government He said the economic situation should improving from spring onwards, and last Revised week GDP forecast for 2023 – prediction growth of 0.2%, up Autumn forecast of 0.4% decline.
As far as the European Central Bank (ECB) goes, Monday’s GDP numbers are unlikely to impact interest rates rate expectations as inflationary pressures remain lochia said bank Economist Ralph Amlof.
The European Central Bank has committed to raising the level key rate by half percentage points this week to 2.5% to reduce inflation.
Monday’s numbers showed a decline private It was basic consumption reason for the decrease in Fourth quarter of GDP.
Consumers are not immune to corrosion of buy them power obligatory to record “Inflation is high,” said Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Kramer.
Inflation, which was mainly driven by higher energy prices, has declined for a second Month in Dec, with Consumer prices harmonized with the European Union rising 9.6% on the year.
However, analysts polled by Reuters predicted that annual inflation harmonized with the EU would kick in double numbers again in January with slight rise to 10%. the office will publish initial inflation rate for January on Tuesday.
Possible energy crisis after the Russia crisis invasion of Ukraine and the end of gas supplies to Germany also was a concern last year. But Germany network The regulator said gas shortages are “increasingly unlikely” this winter.
