industrial manufacturing in Turkey is expected to have grown by 9.7% per year in January, rising for a 19th consecutive month, according to a survey on Tuesday.
Corn on believes that activity has cooled compared to the previous month due to disruptions to some public services, according to the Reuters poll.
Month on month, production at the plant is expected to have contracted slightly due to power and natural gas outages at industrial facilities resulting from a failure in Iran.
Year-on-year growth, however, has remained positive since coronavirus measures were eased in 2020.
The median estimate in the Reuters poll of seven institutions showed growth of 9.7% in the calendar-adjusted industrial production index in January. Forecasts varied between 7.0% and 12.1%.
Enver Erkan, chief economist at Tera Yatırım, said natural gas and power cuts at the end of January may have caused a contraction or a slowdown in industrial production.
He added than a potential food source issue at cause from Russia invasion of Ukraine, and rising production costs, could slow things down more.
“If there is a discount in external demand, this could have an impact on production through exports. If there is any supply chain disruption due to war after February, it could impact industrial production with both price increases and a lack of goods in the market,” he said.
Erkan added that he expects pace of growth in the slowdown index down single digit like of March and neutral approach to summer.
In April of 2020, production dropped more over 31% in the face of the first one vague of coronavirus. He has since made a strong recovery because subsequent measures largely bypassed the manufacturing sector and most of the remaining restrictions were lifted in July of last year.
Turkey economy bounced back back of the COVID-19 pandemic to grow by 11% last yearson highest rate in a decade. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 9.1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.
But a depreciation in the turkish lira pushed up inflation via import prices. Inflation jumped to 54% in February, as the fallout from Russia invasion of Ukraine is also darken the outlook.
Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) to announce industrial production figures for January on Friday.
