Food prices in Egypt was already climb before Russia invaded Ukraine and now bread, a politically symbolic staple on on which many Egyptians depend heavily, is also to become more expensive as exports in the Black Sea, where the country massively buys wheat, are disrupted and global prices rise.
it stacks up financial pressure on families who to have already endured for years of austerity, in a country where almost a third of the 103 millions population live below the official poverty line and many more struggle to cope.
Buyers say cost of a package of unsubsidized breads increased by one quarter in the three weeks that have passed since Russia invasion of son neighbour, while prices of oil, eggs, pasta and other widely consumed foods are also escalation.
Flour prices have increased by up at 15%, said Attia Hamad of the Cairo Chamber of Trade.
Of son working as a porter in Cairo, Mahmoud Farag earns 1,500 Egyptian pounds ($95) every month, but that is no longer enough to feed him properly son family of five.
“I eat less so that my children are not hungry”, explains Farag, 52, whose daily newspaper budget for bread currently buy eight small flat breads instead of 10. “Sometimes we cook a good meals every three days, and the rest of the week we just eat something like bread and cheese.”
Egypt is typically the world’s most grand importer of wheat from, buying more over 60% of son wheat from abroad. Russia and Ukraine represented for about 80% of these imports last year.
Now traders are scrambling to source supplies elsewhere as the fighting in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia blocks shipments.
“If I want to find an alternative, the prices will be very different,” said one Trader in the region pointing to volatility in the futures contracts underlying market.
The contract for May wheat delivery on the future parisians market East up nearly 50% from its lows in February.
Social risk
Recent price increases could also almost double annual state expenditure on wheat imports have risen from about $3 billion to $5.7 billion, according to a study this week by the Institute international food policy research amount the government could find it hard recover as cost of subsidized bread did not changed since the 1980s – even if the size of a loaf has shrunk.
An attempt to elevate the price of Egyptian subsidized bread in 1977 sparked riots as former President Hosni Mubarak faced troubles in 2008 over shortage of wheat. the leading singing of the uprising that overthrew him three years later was “Bread, Freedom and social justice.”
International organizations such as the World Bank are now warning that soaring energy and food prices trigger similar social troubles in North Africa and the Middle East.
the government tried to reassure the Egyptians in in recent weeks that existing wheat reserves and local crops will meet the demand for heavily subsidized bread available about two-thirds of the population for at least eight months.
He has also lifted the amount it will pay the farmers for their wheat to secure more of the local culture and says it’s budgeted for more expensive grain imports, despite growing pressure on public finance.
Officials said subsidy reforms could be included in the 2022/23 budget to be announced this month, although the extent of any reform remains not clear.
Wheat for all other breads come from one culture private market where traders say reserves are lower.
At least a dozen people were detained on suspicion of hoarding and speculation as authorities seek to counter the price surge, and President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi on Tuesday loaded the government for set a price for unsubsidized bread.
Exports of wheat, flour and other food items, including lentils and beans, have been banned for three months.
Continued expensive raw materials should grow up prices across the economy. Headline inflation reached son highest rate in almost three years in February and is expected to accelerate further as consumers regroup buy before of the holy month of Ramadan next month.
Timothée Kaldas, a policy scholarship holder at the Tahrir Institute for policy in the Middle East, said that although the new pressures could fuel latent frustrations over living conditions, they may not result in public demonstrations, which are now effectively banned after a long crackdown on political dissent.
“We saw Egyptians also endure incredible efforts without taking to the streets in any significant number,” Kaldas said.
