Russia announced it is winter offensive in Ukraine with great Fanfare, but ominous campaign It was another disappointment for Moscow.
like spring arrivesthe two armies are at a standstill with Troops extend from the shores of From the Black Sea to northeastern Ukraine – and the Kremlin at once again Had to take a long time view After failing to achieve a breakthrough.
here how Russia has suffered a bitter setback, and what could happen next.
battle for Bakhmut
Bakhmut became the longest and bloodiest battle in Ukraine. Both sides have suffered heavy losses in Eastern industrial city home to about 70,000 people prewar.
They waged a war of drain for months and city was taken on It has great symbolic significance, although analysts say it has little strategic value.
Russian mercenary outfit Wagner was driving attack On Monday, it claimed that it had captured Bakhmut city HALL – But Wagner’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said his forces were still suffering losses.
Even if the Russian Bakhmut fell invasion will fall short of seize control of donetsk oblast, one of that it main The Washington-based Hudson Institute said in that it latest military a report.
I stopped offensive
Russia occupied just 70 square kilometers (less than 30 square miles) across Ukraine in Leo Perea Penne said, March of French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
The Russian army “lacks training menAnd it has “artillery ammunition supply problems,” he told AFP.
American analyst Michael Kaufman said, “The Russian offensive It’s not going well as expected.”
“the question is, how Will the Russian forces exhaust themselves and have to ration ammunition?
Kaufman warned that the Russian president of General Staff Valery Gerasimov “exhausted force with Poorly timed, pointless set of offensive Operations gains will not change the strategic picture for Russia, but the Russian troops can leave more exhibition.”
war of drain
The war has decimated forces and drained resources on Both sides for more from U.S year.
Ukraine has spent a lot of Alexander Khramchikhin, an independent, said his forces were keeping the cities without much strategic importance military analyst in Moscow.
but former Ukrainian defense minister Andrei Zagorodnyuk said he had “serious doubts that (Russian forces) could raise their level of operations,” arguing that it would not be sustainable.
Kaufman said he believes the “Russian military He likely had the manpower and reserves for a stubborn installation defense” against Ukrainian counter-offensive with At its disposal are “minefields and trenches”.
western support
Ukraine has access for Western intelligence, training and weapons, with heavy-duty tall cabinets-range Artillery arrives on the battlefield.
The outcome will depend.on the speed and scope of Western deliveries and ability of Russian air Defenses to intercept this type of Said Igor Korotchenko, editor of Moscow-based national defense magazine.
Korotchenko, who He said that deliveries to Ukraine are subject to Western sanctions, which “prolong the conflict”.
no support down
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be observing for In the long run you will have to fight war of resources,” Zagorodnyuk said, adding that Ukraine is taking a beating economy He is “not recovering.”
“The anger and desperation are particularly noticeable” among the officials in Moscow, said Tatiana Stanovaya, prof senior Fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Research Center.
The Russian elites are united in Their conviction that since Putin started this war, he must win It is,” she continued.
But she said it as it is on the battlefield”no one understand how Putin can secure a victory.
