With the US midterm elections approaching next November, expectations are mounting for their results, which could determine the winner of the upcoming White House race.
The Five Thirty Eight website identifies reasons why the upcoming midterm elections are worrying Democrats, led by President Joe Biden.
According to the report, the latest opinion polls show that Republicans lead the overall congressional vote among likely voters by 5 points – a result that would secure the GOP victory in the House of Representatives and turn the Senate into an uphill battle for Democrats.
Republican candidates have made clear strides in some individual Senate races, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, there are also examples to the contrary. The survey company Selzer Co. highly ranked this week released a poll showing Democrats leading by 4 points on the general ballot among likely voters.
Meanwhile, according to the report, Democrats can cite some recent Senate polling in states like Ohio and New Hampshire.
Overall, Democrats have a 68 out of 100 chance of winning the Senate, down from a recent high of 71 out of 100.
The report said Republicans could still do well in November, citing major reasons for hope for the GOP and worry for Democrats.
Republicans have a long history of strong midterm results, according to the report.
Republicans have a significant structural advantage in the Senate, given that they get along well with white and rural voters and that rural white voters are overrepresented in the Senate relative to their overall share of the US population.
It matters a lot to the House of Representatives, according to the report, where the website’s prediction, which attempts to predict the race based on opinion polls alone, gives Republicans a 61-in-100 chance of controlling the House.
The report says the predictive results model indicates that Republicans are likely to earn more.
Democrats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives have narrow majorities, and the midterm elections seem very difficult to them. This reality emerges as the ruling camp usually loses these elections.
