Turkey economy should have increased by 11% in 2021 after rebounding strongly from the coronavirus pandemic, according to a survey.
Yet the economy gets cold off this year due to soaring inflation and recent volatility in the Turkish lira.
Turkey was one of the little countries to expand in 2020, thanks in large part to cheap loans following a series of rate cuts by the central bank abstain off economic impact of the pandemic.
Growth picked up the pace again in 2021 as COVID-19 restrictions have been largely lifted. But a falling currency at the end of the year disturbed growth expectations for this year.
The median estimate in a Reuters poll of 25 economists for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2021 growth was 11%, with forecasts between 6% and 11.8%.
The poll also to put growth in the fourth quarter at 9%, according to the median estimate of 13 economists, in a range of 6.3% and 11.9%.
the government at also to put forward believes that the economy would like record double-figure growth in 2021, higher than its previous forecasts of 9%.
“Although international institutions say 9%, we think we will reach double-figure growth digits at the end of the year”, said Erdoğan in November.
The European Bank for reconstruction and development (EBRD) said in november the economy would have increased by 9% in 2021, driven by a renewal in exports and tourism.
The country’s exports reached a record $225.4 billion last year, with a target of 300 billion dollars set for 2023. Tourism revenue doubled to nearly $25 billion last year as the sector continued to recover from the impact of measures for combat the propagation of COVID-19 since 2020.
Revenue was $34.5 billion in 2019, before the epidemic of the pandemic. the government provide income year for match this of 2019.
The economic boom in 2021 has been clouded by double-digital inflation, which soared after the Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey (CBRT) started cutting son policy rate in September.
The lira has been broadly stable since start of the year following 44% decline in 2021.
Authorities are pursuing a new economic policy of low interest rates to boost credit, exports and investment, saying it would be help the country weather inflation.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says the policy will also ultimately help Turkey solve it’s chronic current account deficit problem and help stabilize lira.
For support the central drivele bank had brought down the reference policy rate per 500 points since September at 14% but interrupted the easing cycle in January and kept the one- rest week rate unchanged this month again.
Reading it had hit a record moo of 6:36 p.m. against United States dollar in December. The currency has been hovering around 13.5 since then, after the government instituted a new financial tool to dissuade savers from buying foreign currency and encourage them to convert their foreign currency holdings into liras with a system that protects deposits against currency fluctuations.
The lira weakened by up to 1.5% against the dollar on Tuesday, approaching son lowest level this yearafter Russia escalated tensions in Eastern Ukraine.
It slipped as high as 13.9025 before paring losses to 13.85 on the day. It was trading at 13.8025 as of 1:40 p.m. local time on Wednesday.
GDP growth in 2022 should be 3.5%, based on on the median estimate of 23 economists in the Reuters poll. Forecasts ranged from 0.8% to 5.2%.
Growth was 7.4% in the third quarter of 2021, and a whopping 22% in the second quarter mainly due to the so-called base effect created by the pandemic-related slowdown in 2020.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) is expected to announce the fourth quarter and 2021 GDP data on February 28.