Central European economies advanced in The first quarter This is partly due to local strength demandthe preliminary data for the gross domestic product (GDP) showed on Tuesday, but high inflation and its impact of Ukraine war set to moisturize growth Later this year.
While a full recession right now seems unlikely in the region’s economies, rising Will weigh interest rates on credit demand in The coming months as central banks fight Analysts and central bankers said inflation has been high for decades.
“There are many dangers ahead, so how The economy will perform in The next quarters are uncertain. “We expect a significant slowdown,” brokerage Equilor said.
“Uncertainty in global Supply chains, the Russo-Ukrainian war and resulting potential energy crisis are downside risk for European economies.
sharp benefit rate heights so far failed to curb price pressure in Central Europe because of a fast rise in wages and rising energy prices. Central Banks via region right Now face The challenge of refine policy Tightening to curb inflation without stifling the economy growth This is amazing year And next.
However, Hungary economy Expanded 8.2% annually in The first quarterabove analysts’ expectations for 6.9% growth. The region’s largest economyPoland, by 8.5% year-over-year also Above expectations for 7.9% growth.
Poland’s expansion was fueled by spending on millions of Refugees fleeing neighboring Ukraine, while consumer spending in Hungary has been boosted by the wage increases Prime Minister Viktor Orban made in pre-election elections and subsidies to families. in The first quarter.
But the clouds are gathering on horizon and growth in The region It is widely expected to take hit Later this yearalthough it can be remain above 4% in Analysts said that Poland and Hungary in general.
“Polish economy will slow down down clearly in The second half of The year. However, the fact That we start from such a high level means that the average growth for completely year It will be above 4%, even if we drop to about 1% in the end of The year, said Peter Bielsky, a leading Economist at Santander Bank Polska.
Urban on Monday raised a ghost of squeeze out of Recession” in Europe told him government “Defending” economic achievements and regulating prices to curb inflation.
Romania economy expanded 6.5% on The year in The first quartersharply above market Outlook, while Slovakia economy It grew 3.1% and Bulgaria 4.5%.
Cyprien Dascalo, chief economist at BCR Bank in Romania, said supply chain problems He might feel it more sharply in The second quarter.
“We expect inflation to lead to a large extent in The second half of The yearbut can be offset by investment with “European Union money,” he said.
Data from the Czech Republic earlier this month also Show stronger than expected first quarter growth.
