Climate crisis threatens to spread millions of people in Middle East with little rainfall, intense heat waves and worsening droughts, the world’s most water-stressful region on edge.
Hussein Abu Saddam head of farmers guild in Egypt hosting COP27 global Climate Summit in November, AFP already Climate-induced exodus from countryside.
Farming in Egypt – “one of arid countries in The world- It has grown even less profitable because of new Climate-related hazards such as “appearance of new parasites.”
“guy people From rural areas migrate abroad or to big cities for work in industry.”
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, “about 90% of Refugees come from countries Most vulnerable and least willing to adapt to the effects of Climate change “.
“if people You can’t farm, then people I can not workif people They can’t find food, they have few alternatives to displacement,” Amy Pope, deputy director of International Organization for Migration (International Organization for Migration), in an interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP).
In 2021, natural disasters forced “nearly 3 million people’To leave their own homes in Africa and the Middle East said.
And the situation will only get worse.”
sea level rise
By 2060, Egypt already stretched Researchers expect the agricultural sector to shrink by up to 47%.
In addition to decline in Agricultural production, “rural-urban migration also Feed on “gravity” of urban life city And services that are available there,” according to Florian Bonnevoy, a research fellow center for Economic, Legal, Social and Documentation Study (CEDEJ) in Cairo.
Globally, the World Bank estimates that by 2050, if nothing is done to prevent it, there will be 216 million people IDPs due to climate change, including 19.3 million in North Africa.
about 7% of people in North Africa – where a densely populated coastline is among the world’s most threatened by rising water – live Less than 5 meters (16 feet) above sea level, according to the European Institute of Mediterranean (IEMed).
With the coasts affected, the population will converge naturally on big Cities: Cairo, Algiers, Tunis, Tripoli, Casablanca-Rabat area and Tangiers.
But these ‘hot spots’ of Climate migration,” warns the World Bank, they themselves are vulnerable to rising waters.
in Egypt city of Alexandria, for For example, 2 million people – Almost a third of Its inhabitants – they could be displaced and 214,000 jobs lost if sea levels rose half meter.
fierce struggle
Climate-induced migration to cities could ‘increase pressure’ on Natural resources “according to the economist Assem Abu Hatab” leading to me social Tensions and Violent Conflicts in a region where farming currently accounts for 22% of Recruit.
previously in Sudan, tribal clashes over access To water and land leave hundreds dead All year. in just tow days in October, no less than 200 people Died when violence broke out in Southern Blue Nile State.
According to UNICEF, of 17 Most Rare Water countries in The world11 years in Middle East or North Africa.
in Iraq 20% of The country’s fresh water could disappear if it world heated with “one An extra degree” and the rain drops another 10%, according to the World Bank.
Third of Agricultural land can be deprived of irrigation creating Acute shortage for The state population of 42 million.
Jordan, one of The world is drier countriesIt had to double Water imports from Israel in 2021, and the besieged Gaza Strip for Years suffered from chronic water shortages.
The international community She has an obligation – first in Copenhagen and then in Paris – ” help development countries Adapt to the effect of Climate change”, including by supporting Various mechanisms for Agriculture and water management”, according to the Pope.
for the purpose of help Communities “find other jobs and therefore other resources.” of Income ‘and stopping immigration due to climate, these financial Commitments must now be maintained.
