A new episode of competition between Morocco and Algeria for gas exports to Europe, as both sides seek to win deals to complete a project aimed at laying pipelines from Africa to the North.
The Moroccan project is aimed at creating a 6,000-kilometer gas pipeline from Nigeria, passing through 11 countries along the Atlantic coast, before entering Moroccan territory and transferring it to Spain. Algeria, on the other hand, is looking to revive a decades-old project by linking it to Nigerian gas fields across the Niger for 4,000 kilometers.
Since the global energy crisis, recent months have seen rapid changes in Europe’s relationship with African gas, with the registration of an extensive political and diplomatic dynamic from the two countries, most prominently in the relationship between the two neighbors. the signing of a number of agreements with the Nigerian side and other interested countries, as well as official statements from the two countries, emphasizing the feasibility and importance of each project.
Morocco and West Africa
In his last speech on the occasion of the anniversary of the Green March, King Mohammed VI of Morocco devoted a lot of space to the story of the Moroccan-Nigerian gas pipeline project, describing it as strategic.
King Mohammed VI called the Moroccan-Nigerian gas pipeline “a project for peace, African economic integration and common development”, adding: “We want it to be a strategic project for the benefit of the entire West African region, which has a population of more than 440 million people.”
The 6,000 km Nigerian-Moroccan gas pipeline project will pass through Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, Senegal and Mauritania all the way to Morocco.
The project, whose completion date has yet to be set, will transport more than 5,000 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Morocco before it is directly connected to the Morocco-Europe (GME) pipeline and the European gas network.
The pipeline project between Nigeria and Morocco was announced at the end of 2016. Last September, representatives from Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal and Mauritania signed two memorandums of understanding in Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania.
And the Arab Maghreb Agency released a joint statement, stressing that the two memorandums “reaffirm the commitment of the parties to this strategic project, which, when completed, will provide gas to all West African countries and open a new, alternative export route to Europe.”
Morocco and the Nigerian government also signed another memorandum of understanding with the Economic Community of West African States (CEDIAO) in Rabat following the announcement in June of the progress of studies related to the project.
Trans desert pipe
The day before the speech of the Moroccan monarch, Algeria, which is a major producer and supplier of oil and gas and has two export lines to Italy and Spain, confirmed its obligations with Nigeria to implement joint structural projects that have been launched, including the Trans-Sahara gas pipeline. gas pipeline, during a meeting of the foreign ministers of the two countries on Saturday.
This confirmation came after the energy ministers of Algeria, Nigeria and Nigeria signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline project on the sidelines of the third ministerial meeting on the pipeline project.
The signatories of the memorandum agreed to complete a feasibility study and deepen studies to complete the Algerian-Nigerian gas pipeline project, which starts from Abuja, passes through Niamey, and from there to Algeria in preparation for its export to Europe.
The idea of creating a trans-Saharan gas pipeline arose back in the 1970s, even before the signing of a memorandum of understanding in 2002, but the project has not been officially launched until today.
The Nigerian-Algerian gas pipeline, known as the Trans-Ahara Gas Pipeline, is about 4,128 kilometers long, has an annual capacity of 30 billion cubic meters, and is estimated to cost about $13 billion to complete. according to Reuters.
Nigeria… the biggest beneficiary
Nigeria, which has signed agreements with the two Maghreb countries, will be the largest beneficiary of the two projects as it has the largest proven gas reserves in Africa, at around 200 trillion cubic meters, much of which is untapped.
According to Bloomberg, the Nigerian government wants to monetize more of this resource to replace crude oil, which is the country’s main commodity, whose production is sharply reduced due to massive theft from pipelines and insufficient investment in fields.
Nigerian Minister of Petroleum Resources Timber Silva told Bloomberg that his country has 206 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves.
Nigeria, which currently produces 8 billion cubic feet of gas per day, is seeking to increase its production to 12.2 billion cubic feet and with it increase its exports to Europe, while the old continent seeks to end its dependence on Russian supplies. .
In the same dialogue, Silva referred to his country’s work in laying gas pipelines to Europe through Morocco and Algeria, stating: “During this decade, we will focus on developing gas resources, and most of them will go to Europe. a pipeline that goes to Europe through Algeria, and we are in partnership with Algeria.” To build a gas pipeline that will transport our gas directly to Europe, and we have another plan with Morocco to build another pipeline that will transport Nigerian gas to the European continent.
A spokesman said: “We have completed approximately 70% of the line that will transport gas from the south of Nigeria to its north, and after the completion of this local project, we will be ready to transfer it out of the country to Niger and then through it to Algeria.”
Regarding the Moroccan line, Silva stressed that it is still in the feasibility stage and said: “We are working hard on it and it will go through 15 African countries and we will transport gas through it to Morocco and from there directly to Europe”.
“Algerian Jam”
Moussaoui Ajlawi, professor at the African Studies Institute in Rabat, believes that if the two projects succeed together it will be a positive thing, especially in light of the current global conditions, but there are a number of security, economic and policy reasons that make the Moroccan-Nigerian gas pipeline “more important for Europe and the African continent than its Algerian counterpart” as he described it.
In a statement to the Al-Hurra Canal, Al-Musawi emphasizes that the Nigeria-Niger-Algiers line project is shorter in distance and material cost than the Moroccan connection project, but “the Sahel region faces great security problems and dangers in the Sahara, which is one of the world’s largest and least secure hotspots.”
The same speaker points out that securities related to the Nigerian-Algerian project will in no way contribute to its completion. In light of the lack of security in northern Nigeria; He added that with the proliferation of elements of Boko Haram and transnational criminal gangs, the area through which the Niger project will pass, near western Niamey, is also known for the proliferation of ISIS fighters.
On the other hand, the Moroccan expert emphasizes that the Moroccan-Nigerian project offers a suitable alternative for European countries that look to West Africa as a strategic alternative to Russian gas, in addition to what he considered the importance and opportunities it would provide for 11 countries through which the gas pipeline will pass, as this will contribute to the stabilization of political systems and the development of economic and social states.
The representative criticizes what he calls the “derailment” of the Algerian Moroccan project, adding that Algeria has signed memorandums of understanding and agreements with Nigeria since 2002, but without any progress, and has begun to re-submit a project coinciding with the Moroccan one. are working on a similar project, and explained that the Algerian regime “does not want this project to see the light of day, because it will create a new geopolitical field called Northwest Africa, linking Europe with Morocco to 11 West African countries.
“project competition”
For his part, economics expert Boubacar Salami believes that the competition between the two countries is “legitimate and justified as every country in the world seeks to build partnerships with other countries that benefit their economy, but points to the need for this rivalry to take place within the “limits of mutual respect” of international norms and conventions.
In a statement to the Al-Hurra website, the Algerian expert notes that the nature of the “tense” relationship between Algeria and Morocco has given the issue more volume than its size, indicating that Algeria, like any country, wishes to build a strong economy and a strategic energy partnerships within international competition, in particular that Morocco should be a gas producing country that has the infrastructure and experience in managing gas facilities, is different, he said.
The same speaker refuses to see Algeria’s efforts as a desire to “cut off the road to Morocco”, noting that the issue is within the economic interests of Algeria, and not cutting off the road on one side or the other, explaining that if two lines can be established, there is no objection to this objections, subject to the consent of Nigeria.
The spokesman explained that Morocco’s desire to create an 11-country project “is a difficult and difficult issue, whether at the level of negotiations or cost, because every country through which the pipeline passes will have the right of passage, which will increase the production cost of the cost and , therefore, a high selling price, due to which the project will depreciate. According to him.
The criminal expert continues that Morocco must prove the effectiveness of the project by examining its feasibility and its implications for the economy, security and geopolitics, and reaching the agreements reached.”
In the same context, Salami mentions that the implementation of the project in Morocco, namely “the desert lands and their maritime space”, will face a political problem, explaining that even if he manages to secure the passage, the European countries will not be satisfied. with the purchase of gas that passes through disputed lands until a solution is found within the UN.