A Russian invasion of Ukraine could raise grain prices by 7% in the long run, according to a study Monday, which notes that expanding production elsewhere to make up for shortages will increase greenhouse gas emissions.
Russia and Ukraine are the breadbaskets of the world, and together they export about 28% of the world’s wheat supply.
The Russian blockade of the Black Sea ports and sanctions against Moscow led to a short-term increase in prices and raised fears of a serious hunger crisis.
Researchers in the US and Uruguay modeled the potential impact of the conflict on wheat and corn prices over the next 12 months based on various scenarios.
One of these models was that if Russian grain exports were halved, while Ukrainian exports were significantly reduced during this period, corn would be 4.6% more expensive and wheat 7.2% more expensive, even assuming that other exporters will step in to make up the shortfall.
They said price increases would continue as long as exports remain limited.
In an attempt to make up for the supply gap, the study concluded that other large producers would need to expand their area dedicated to growing grain.
According to the model, if all grain exports from Ukraine ceased, Australia would have to expand wheat acreage by 1 percent, China by 1.5 percent, the European Union by 1.9 percent, and India by 1.2 percent.
Land-use change will add a little more than the equivalent of one billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, according to a study published in the journal Nature Food.
“Cultivated area is expanding as a result of the war in Ukraine due to increased carbon emissions,” said Jerome Dumortier, research director and researcher at the School of Public and Environmental Affairs. O’Neill in Indianapolis, USA.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in July that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, combined with the trade fallout from Covid, created an “unprecedented global hunger crisis.”
Figures released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) show that food prices are now 10 percent higher than a year ago.
Although Moscow and Kyiv reached an agreement in July to resume grain exports, there are fears that the conflict could drive up food prices for years to come.
Domortier said it is still not clear whether other grain producers will be able to keep up with demand, meaning prices could rise more than the models expected.
“There are droughts in South America, Europe and China, as well as restrictions on exports from several countries,” he told AFP.
“Given these hurdles to a full adjustment, commodity prices could be higher than suggested on paper,” he added.
