Turkish exports remain strong but the conflict in Ukraine darkens the outlook

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Turkey’s exports hit a new all-time monthly high in February, but it’s trade the deficit widened mainly due to the surge in the energy bill, while invasion of Ukraine adds to the woes, darkening the outlook.

Exports were up 25.4% year-over-year to $20 billion (TL 281.39 billion) last months, Trade Minister Mehmet Muş said during a meeting in the capital Ankara to announce the preliminaries trade The figures.

Imports jumped 45.6% year-over-year to $28.1 billion, according to the data, mainly due to increased energy imports.

Recorded energy purchases for about $9 billion of imports, according to the data.

the trade the deficit thus reached $8.1 billion, jumping 142% year-over-year, says Mus. The shortfall has widened by 186% year-over-year in the first two months of the year data showed.

Muş said the harsh winter conditions coupled with the increase in energy price caused the spike in imports.

Russia invasion of Ukraine pushed oil prices to their highest since 2014 at more above $110 a barrel, which increases the risks for energy importer Turkey.

Prices of cereals, which Turkey imports mainly from Ukraine and Russia, have also leaps.

Turkey made a float start to 2022 while its exports hit an all-time high monthly in January, up 17.6% year-over-year at $17.6 billion.

Exports reached a record $225.4 billion in 2021, and the government revised son target at 250 billion dollars and 300 billion dollars set for 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Russia invasion of Ukraine has the potential to harm Turkey’s economy given its son deep energy, defense and trade relations, while the two markets are its main sources of tourism.

“Both Russia and Ukraine are among Turkey’s important countries. trade partners,” Muş said, but stressed that the conflict had dealt a serious blow to regional economic activity and political stability.

Turkey trade with Russia and Ukraine have reached a record high in 2021. Volume with Russia reached 34.7 billion dollars, while the turnover with Ukraine jumped to $7.4 billion.

Studies are underway to help mitigate potential negative impacts of the conflict, Muş said.

“We are conducting technical studies to prevent the spread of the crisis to different regions and sectors, focusing on alternate modes of transport and routes.

The conflict could also reduce Turkey’s tourism revenue, as Ankara tries to implement a new economic program which favors production and export with the goal of reach a current account surplus.

The Turkish Lira has traded broadly stable since the start of this year but in the lead 14 against the dollar last week due to rising tensions between Moscow and Kyiv.

It weakened by 1.5% on Wednesday, before parrying his losses.

“The main impact of the war on the Turkish economy will be through the decline in tourism revenues and higher oil prices,” JPMorgan said. in a research Remark on the fallout from the war.

Goldman Sachs said in a recent note that Turkey’s dependence on the tourist receipts of the warring parties as well as rising commodity prices are likely to lead for higher inflation, greater current account deficit, and could affect the economy growth.

He revised a current account deficit forecast for 2022 at 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5% previously, adding that the conflict may renew the pressure on read it.

QNB Finansbank reviewed son 2022 current account deficit forecast up to 25 billion dollars against 10 billion previously.

the government wait for it current account to reverse course and record a surplus.

JP Morgan also doubled his current account deficit projected at 2.2% for this year from 1.1% of GDP.

Turkey imported the most from Russia, China and Germany last month. The first three destinations for Turkey’s exports were Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom, according to the data.

the stranger trade volume soared 36.4% to $48.1 billion last months, Muş said.

The export-import coverage rate – excluding energy – is 95.1% in February, he added.

The number of exporting companies increased by more over 5,000 year-over-year in February, noted Muş.

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