Ukraine’s war has major economic consequences for Energy, food, inflation and poverty, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Beata Gavorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, spoke to Agence France-Presse (AFP) about the fallout from the Russian crisis. invasion of Ukraine from where more More than 3 million refugees have fled so far.
Global lenders make billions for Ukraine, including 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) “elasticity package”From the London-based European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, but there currently Infinity in Sight to conflict.
The crisis caused a rise in commodity prices on Supply concerns, fueling inflation already at multi-decade heights.
About costs rebuild Costs ., Javorcik Ukraine said of This war will depend on how I will fight long last.
“Big portions of The country works – the infrastructure is there, the banks system Operating, businesses are still open. but it’s very hard to determine the quantity,” she said.
“The (rebuild) the shape of 100 billion dollars come from Ukrainian government … and he cost of Infrastructure and buildings that have been destroyed. It is equivalent to about two-thirds of Gross domestic product “.
According to the Ukrainian government, Gavorsik said, half of Businesses are closed down And other companies working in reduced eligibility.
‘Which – which shows that economic cost It will be important.”
Comment too on refugee crisis, and general Looking forward to this crisis, Javorcik said it is a tragic situation for many people They had to uproot their lives and livelihoods and had to move in another place avoid dispute.
“But what is historical experience Says us Is this some of refugees stay in the host countries And they serve as a bridge, like people who set up business links with they home country and in this is way facilitating flows of investment and trade she said.
Javorcik added That if the conflict continues, the number of Refugees may arrive six Million.
“the scale of It is huge and unprecedented.”
Asked about the rise in commodity markets, the EBRD economist said, “Even if the war stops today, the consequences of This struggle will feel for The coming months, this would work by commodity prices.
She said the poor would be hit much more difficult higher Energy Prices By higher Food prices.
Russia and Ukraine responsible for 30% of Wheat exports globally. Ukrainian farmers did not sell last year crop so far. Shipping in The Black Sea is besieged – and Ukrainian farmers are not sowing new Gavorcik stressed, noting that Russia and Belarus are very important sources of ammonia and potash (group of minerals and chemicals containing potassium) – inputs in fertilizers.
there also Effect on Renewable energy, she said, “because nickel, copper, platinum and palladium are inputs into the industry.”
“If you are thinking of using gas record levels in Europe and oil on a global level … all of these things lead to inflate.”
comment on the influence of Penalties on Russia, Javorcik said there is an acronym-term economic cost That will result Who ever international trade and low confidence.
“We can talk about consumer loss of Trust, the ruble loses its value, and so on onbut maybe what is more What is interesting is the long-term Even after the conflict is over, Russia is seen as a risky destination for investment, or in the event of some nationalization – as we have heard in Remarks of (President) Vladimir Putin – This will hurt reputation of Russia.”
“If the penalties on exports of Average technology Products last, then lose access of embodied knowledge in capital goods. And then there may be also be loss of flow of Scholars and students in Both ways.”
Javorcik . gold on To say that the conflict happened at a time when there was already slowing down in The global economyAnd therefore higher will set energy prices more brakes on growth.
“And the higher Inflation will force Central banks to respond with Interest rates increase, which is also Will be bad for growth, and added that this conflict will have damages effect on The global economy – “No doubt about it.”
