Introduction

Ukrainian farmers are planning to expand the sown area of winter rapeseed crops to a record 1.9 million hectares in 2024. However, they may reduce the sown area of winter wheat, according to a survey conducted by the Agriculture Ministry.

Survey Results

The survey revealed that 45% of farmers did not plan to reduce the winter sowing area, while 38% intended to increase it. Meanwhile, 14% of farmers stated that they would not sow winter crops at all.

Minimal Changes in Winter Crops Acreage

The Ministry of Agriculture stated that the majority of farmers do not plan to significantly change their winter crops acreage compared to the previous season.

Sowing Plans for 2024

Earlier this month, Ukraine faced difficulties in exporting its grain. As a result, the government requested farmers to report their sowing plans for 2024. This was done to form preliminary estimates for the 2024/25 season.

Potential Changes in Crop Composition

The Ministry of Agriculture mentioned that the composition of winter crops might change. Producers could reduce the share of wheat and barley, while increasing the area under winter rapeseed.

Winter Barley Area Decrease

According to the survey, the winter barley area may experience the most significant decrease, with a reduction of 5.4%.

Increase in Overall Winter Crop Area

The survey also indicated that the overall winter crop area could rise by 0.5 million hectares, or 8%, compared to the previous season.

Record Increase in Winter Rapeseed

The Ministry of Agriculture stated that rapeseed remains the key factor in the expansion of the sown areas. The planted area under winter rapeseed is expected to increase by almost 40% to a record 1.9 million hectares.

Ukraine’s Current Agricultural Situation

Ukraine, a major global oilseed grower, had sown a total of 1.4 million hectares of both spring and winter rapeseed crops for the 2023 harvest. The country traditionally exports most of its rapeseed output.

Ukraine has already completed the 2023 wheat harvest, with 95% of it being winter wheat. Farmers harvested 21.9 million tons of wheat from 4.6 million hectares.

Analysts predict that Ukraine’s grain output will rise to around 56 million metric tons in 2023 from 53 million in 2022 due to a higher yield.

Export Challenges

Ukraine consumes only about 17 million tons of grain per season and needs to export the remainder. However, shipments have been affected by a blockade of its major seaports since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

A deal brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye, which had allowed such exports, collapsed last month as Russia walked away from it. Russia claimed that its demands to ease sanctions on its own grain and fertilizer exports had not been met.

Currently, Ukraine can only export limited volumes through small river ports on the Danube and via its western land border with the European Union.

Due to the challenges faced in exporting grain, Ukrainian producers have had to adjust their sowing plans. They are now switching from grain crops to oilseeds, which are more expensive but produce less volume.

For example, Ukraine has already reduced its sowing area for corn in favor of sunflowers.