No shortage of supply of cereals are expected due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two countries which provide a substantial amount amount of Turkey’s grain imports, said the country’s Ministry of Agriculture.
The all-out invasion of Ukraine as of Thursday raised the prospect of tighter supplies in raw materials, due to the possibility of additional penalties on Russian exports, transport disruptions and blockage of supplies by Moscow.
Russia and Ukraine count together for 29% of global wheat exports, 80% of sunflower oil exports and 19% of world maize exports.
the price of wheat jumped to 9 1/2 year high on Tuesday, and of corn at an eight-month peak.
Russia counted for 56% of Cereal imports from Turkey in 2021 at $2.24 billion, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) show, and those of Russia and Ukraine combined made up 78%.
Grain imports from Ukraine totaled 861 millions of dollars last year.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry said on On Thursday, no shortage of supply was expected in wheat, other cereals and raw materials materials until the next harvest season given current Provisions in storage room.
“No matter how a lot of weight that Russia and Ukraine got in our grain supplies in in recent years, grain supplies available from another exporter countries and origins in international trade,” It said.
“Together with positive expectations for grain production in 2022, our country does not plan to problem in food supply”, the Ministry added.
However, analysts said Turkey could see further inflationary pressures from rising commodity prices, including oil, natural gas and grain.
Annual inflation in Turkey has risen to almost 50% in January, mainly due to a decline in currencies at the end of 2021, which saw the reading end the year down 44% against United States dollar. Food prices also skyrockets last year in part to cause of drought.
Rising commodity prices, including wheat prices, “obviously will have negative implications for inflation in Turkey,” said Piotr Matys, senior Effects analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.
Food producers “will move some of the increase in energy prices in their products. Turkey is therefore facing an extended period of high inflation,” he said.