About a quarter of the world’s population is at risk from major floods, led by people in poor countries, according to a study released Tuesday.
The study, published in the scientific journal Nature Communications, was based on data on the risks of river flooding, rainfall and seas, as well as data from the World Bank on population distribution and poverty.
It turned out that about 1.81 billion people, or 23 percent of the world’s population, are directly exposed to floods of more than 15 centimeters in a hundred years. Of these, 780 million live on less than $5.50 a day. In East and South Asia, especially in China and India, 1.24 billion people live at risk.
The study confirmed that there are “significant risks to lives and livelihoods, especially for the most vulnerable.” About 90 percent of exposed people live in poor or middle-income countries.
The researchers reported that about 12 percent of global GDP by 2020 will be in high-risk areas. But they warned that looking only at the monetary side could create bias by focusing on wealthy countries and economic centers.
“Low-income countries are disproportionately exposed to flood risks and more prone to catastrophic long-term effects,” according to a study by John Renchler of the World Bank and colleagues.
The researchers also warn that climate change and reckless urbanization could double the risks in the coming years.
In June, unprecedented flooding hit China, leading to the preemptive evacuation of more than 500,000 people. Heavy monsoon rains killed more than 100 people in Bangladesh that same month and led to floods that forced more than seven million people into an emergency. Scientists have confirmed that climate change is making heavy rains more frequent and intense around the world.
