Israel’s Supreme Court on Friday, October 2, overturned a decision to disqualify Arab-majority parties from the upcoming general election. The ruling ensures that factions representing the country’s 20% Arab minority will appear on the ballot for the October 27 vote, maintaining their potential to act as decisive power brokers in a deadlocked political landscape.
The court’s decision reverses a late September vote by the Central Elections Committee (CEC), which had sought to bar the United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List—comprised of the Hadash, Balad, and Ta’al factions. The CEC, a political body made up of representatives from the outgoing Knesset’s parties, had originally moved to disqualify the groups on allegations of supporting armed struggle against the state.
While the court cleared the path for the parties, the outcome for individual candidates was mixed. Sami Abu Shehadeh, the leader of the Balad party, withdrew his candidacy late Thursday after justices signaled they would likely uphold his personal disqualification. The allegations against Abu Shehadeh centered on an article he published on October 8, 2023, in which he described the previous day’s Hamas attacks as a “significant historical event.”
In contrast, the court ruled 7-2 to reinstate the candidacy of Ofer Cassif, a far-left Jewish member of parliament within the Hadash-Ta’al list. Cassif had also faced disqualification efforts by the CEC, but the court’s majority found insufficient grounds to maintain his ban.
The reinstatement of these parties significantly affects the arithmetic of the upcoming election. Current polling suggests the Arab parties are projected to win between 10 and 14 seats. With the two major Zionist blocs currently falling short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government, these parties are positioned as potential “kingmakers.”
Recent projections show the right-wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu hovering between 51 and 52 seats. The opposition bloc is currently centered around Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, which is projected to win approximately 53 seats. Without a clear path to a majority for either side, the inclusion of the Arab factions remains a critical factor in the final weeks of the campaign.
